![]() ![]() economist for Capital Economics, wrote of the latest GDP report. “The mix of growth was discouraging, and the monthly data suggest the economy lost momentum as the fourth quarter went on,” Andrew Hunter, a senior U.S. Michael Antonelli, a managing director and private wealth manager at the financial services company Baird, said that to get a soft landing, inflation would have to fall significantly, corporate earnings would have to hold up, and the job market would have to stay strong. "That means that we have to have policy be more restrictive, and that narrows the path to a soft landing." What's it going to take? Beef is advertised for sale in a grocery store in Los Angeles on Sept. "I just think that the inflation picture has become more and more challenging over the course of this year, without question," Powell said at his monthly news conference in November. ![]() For nearly a year, the central bank has leaned into an aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to slow the rise of consumer prices.įed Chair Jerome Powell himself was unabashed last year about taking those measures. That's because it's an indication that an economic "soft landing," in which the breakneck rate of inflation for much of last year appears to be getting extinguished without a rapid and expansive rise in unemployment.įederal Reserve officials have made it very clear that that is part of their objective to pull back on inflation, which reached as high as 9% on an annualized basis last summer. The news of a slowdown is, at least so far, being met with some relief among some observers. "So across the economy there are more indications that the economy is slowing down materially, and that’s typically the sign of the onset of a recession," Daco said. In addition, people have begun working fewer hours, and manufacturing activity has begun to pull back. still be marching toward a recession? Daco said consumer spending levels appear to have peaked several months ago. We're not going to see broad-based layoffs." "So the pullback is likely to be softer and more gradual than in the past. "So we have not seen the type of severe pullback we usually see at the onset of a recession, where businesses look to cut costs rapidly," he said. He cited two reasons: the state of household finances, like healthy savings rates and relatively low levels of debt, and demand for labor, which continues to be resilient. Very warm or hot spells remain a possibility, with temperatures above the average over the period as a whole."I think the characteristics of this recession are likely to be different than prior ones," said Gregory Daco, the chief economist at Ernst and Young's EY-Parthenon consulting group. However, in the north the risk of rain is higher. Predominantly fine weather is expected, particularly in southern and central regions. Temperatures are expected to often exceed average levels, with the potential for hot spells. These may bring heavy showers and thunderstorms. AugustĪ shift towards more settled weather is forecast, though wetter interludes remain a distinct possibility. The southern half of the UK is likely to experience the wettest conditions. During intervening dry spells, temperatures may rise significantly, potentially reaching very warm or hot levels. Unsettled weather is expected to persist throughout the period, with an ongoing risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. ![]() Despite this, there remains a possibility for showers and thunderstorms, particularly in southern and central regions. Temperatures are anticipated to exceed average levels, with the potential for very warm or hot spells. The period will feature variable weather conditions. ![]()
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